Review sách Quốc Gia Khởi Nghiệp: Kế hoạch luôn cần “method B, C, D”. (0081)

Trong kinh doanh, sai lam lon nhat khong phai la that bai, ma la viec chung ta tin rang minh co mot ban ke hoach hoan hao den muc khong can phuong an thay the. Kha nang xoay chuyen lien tuc giua cac kich ban chinh la “the hinh” cua mot doanh nghiep ben bi.

MUC LUC:

• Ao tuong ve mot ban ke hoach hoan hao trong quan tri.
• Giai ma “Method B, C, D”: Khong phai phuong an du phong, ma la tu duy sinh ton.
• Tai sao doanh nghiep Viet thuong “gay” khi chuyen huong?
• KPI va quan tri hieu suat: Chiec cong kiet hay ban dap cho su linh hoat?
• Kiem soat noi bo va SOC: Luoi an toan khi van hanh tro nen hon loan.
• Cloud Adoption: Nen tang cong nghe cho phep “xoay truc” trong nhay mat.
• Case Study 1: Bai hoc tu mot chuoi ban le kiet que vi trung thanh voi Plan A.
• Case Study 2: Tai cau truc doanh nghiep san xuat – Xoay truc giua khung hoang chuoi cung ung.
• Mat trai cua viec xoay chuyen qua nhanh: Nguy co mat ban sac va tan ra noi bo.
• Actionable Takeaways: Tu trang sach den ban dieu hanh.

AO TUONG VE MOT BAN KE HOACH HOAN HAO TRONG QUAN TRI

Chung ta thuong duoc day rang mot nha dieu hanh gioi la nguoi co tam nhin xa trong rong, lap ra mot ban ke hoach kinh doanh (Business Plan) day du cho 3 nam, 5 nam va cu the ma thuc thi. Nhung thuc te tai cac doanh nghiep va dac biet la cac startup cho thay, mot ban ke hoach chi co gia tri den khi “phat sung dau tien no ra”.

Trong cuon “Quoc gia khoi nghiep”, tai chuong 2 – Battlefield Entrepreneurs, cac tac gia da mo ra mot goc nhin khac biet ve cach nguoi Israel tiep can ke hoach. Ho khong ton sung “Plan A”. Doi voi ho, ke hoach la mot thu thuc the song, no phai bien doi theo thuc dia. Trong quan tri thuc te, toi nhan ra rang rat nhieu lanh dao doanh nghiep dang bi “mac ket” vao chinh cai goi la tinh cam ket voi ke hoach ban dau. Ho coi viec thay doi ke hoach la mot su thua nhan that bai, hoac te hon, ho khong co bat ky su chuan bi nao cho cac kich ban tiep theo.

Chung ta can phan biet ro: Kien dinh voi muc tieu khac voi bao thu voi phuong phap. Muc tieu la ngon hai dang, nhung con duong den do co the la duong bo, duong thuy hoac tham chi la xuyen rung. Neu con duong bi chan ma ban khong co “Method B”, ban se chet ngay tai cua ngo cua thanh cong.

METHOD B, C, D: KHONG PHAI PHUONG AN DU PHONG, MA LA TU DUY SINH TON

Trong sach, “Method B, C, D” duoc nhac den nhu mot phan mau thit cua nhung doanh nhan truong thanh tu quan doi. Hay hieu dung ban chat cua no: Day khong phai la viec ban viet ra 4 ban ke hoach khac nhau roi de trong ngan keo. Day la mot trang thai “san sang xoay truc”.

• Method A: Kich ban ly tuong. Moi thu dien ra dung du lieu, thi truong on dinh, doi thu khong co bien dong lon.
• Method B: Kich ban rui ro trung binh. Doanh thu giam 20%, chi phi nguyen lieu tang, hoac mot kenh ban hang chu luc bi nghen.
• Method C: Kich ban khung hoang. Dong tien bi duc, nhan su chu chot ra di, hoac thi truong thay doi hoan toan hanh vi.
• Method D: Kich ban “sinh ton” hoac “chuyen minh hoan toan”. Ban phai dap di xay lai mot phan mo hinh kinh doanh.

Su khac biet cua nguoi co tu duy “Battlefield” (chien truong) la ho khong doi den khi Method A that bai moi bat dau nghi den Method B. Ho lien tuc quan sat cac “tin hieu yeu” tu thi truong de kich hoat cac phuong an thay the mot cach chu dong.

TAI SAO DOANH NGHIEP VIET THUONG “GAY” KHI CHUYEN HUONG?

Qua qua trinh tu van va tai cau truc cho nhieu doanh nghiep, toi nhan thay co ba ly do chinh khien viec ap dung “Method B, C, D” tro nen xa xi:

1. Cau truc ra quyet dinh qua tap trung: Trong khi o Israel, tinh than “Chutzpah” cho phep cap duoi thach thuc cap tren de tim ra giai phap tot nhat, thi o nhieu doanh nghiep Viet, moi thu phai cho y kien cua “Sep tong”. Khi thi truong bien dong trong tung gio, viec cho doi phe duyet se kien ke hoach B tro nen loi thoi ngay khi vua duoc thong qua.
2. Thieu he thong du lieu thoi gian thuc: Ban khong the kich hoat Method B neu ban khong biet Method A dang “hong” o dau. Nhieu doanh nghiep van quan tri bang cam xuc hoac du lieu cua thang truoc. Khi nhan ra van de, “benh nhan” da vao phong cap cuu.
3. Tam ly “Sunk Cost” (Chi phi chim): Chung ta da dau tu qua nhieu tien vao Plan A, vao he thong may moc nay, vao doi ngu nay. Viec tu bo no de chuyen sang Plan B giong nhu mot nhat dao cat vao ruot gan. Nhung trong kinh doanh, “Method B” doi khi yeu cau ban phai biet cat lo de bao toan luc luong.

KPI VA QUAN TRI HIEU SUAT: CHIEC CONG KIET HAY BAN DAP CHO SU LINH HOAT?

Day la diem ma nhieu nguoi doc “Quoc gia khoi nghiep” thuormg hieu sai. Ho nghi rang linh hoat nghia la khong can quy trinh, khong can KPI. Thuc te hoan toan nguoc lai. De xoay chuyen giua cac phuong an B, C, D mot cach muot ma, ban can mot he thong KPI cuc ky khoa hoc.

KPI luc nay khong phai de “troi” nhan vien, ma de “canh bao sớm”.

CHI TIEU	KPI TRUYEN THONG	KPI LINH HOAT (B,C,D)
Thoi han danh gia	Theo nam, quy	Theo tuan, thang
Muc tieu	Co dinh tu dau nam	Co the dieu chinh
Vai tro	Kiem soat va trung phat	Do luong de ung bien
Tinh ket noi	Roi rac tung bo phan	Lien ket chuoi gia tri

Khi ban co mot he thong quan tri hieu suat tot, KPI dong vai tro nhu cac cam bien tren may bay. Neu cam bien bao hieu do cao dang giam nguy hiem (Method A dang fail), phi cong ngay lap tuc kich hoat giao thuc ha canh khan cap (Method B). Neu khong co KPI, ban dang lai doanh nghiep trong su mu loa.

KIEM SOAT NOI BO VA SOC: LUOI AN TOAN KHI VAN HANH TRO NEN HON LOAN

Mot sai lam chi mang khi thuc hien “Method B, C, D” la su hon loan ve van hanh. Khi ban thay doi ke hoach xoay xoach, cac quy trinh kiem soat noi bo thuong bi bo qua “cho nhanh”. Day la luc gian lan, sai sot va ton that tai san xay ra.

Trong quan tri hien dai, cac chung chi hoac tieu chuan nhu SOC (Service Organization Control) khong chi danh cho cac cong ty cong nghe. No la tu duy ve viec thiet lap cac chot kiem soat ma tai do, du ban co thay doi chien thuat thi cac nguyen tac cot loi ve bao mat, tinh toan ven cua du lieu va tinh san sang cua he thong van phai duoc dam bao.

Hay tuong tuong ban dang tai cau truc mot phong kinh doanh (chuyen tu ban hang truc tiep sang ban hang qua kenh doi tac – Method B). Neu ban khong co he thong kiem soat noi bo tot, viec doi tac chong cheo khach hang, gian lan hoa hong se tieu diet doanh nghiep ban truoc khi Method B kip ra hoa ket trai.

CLOUD ADOPTION: NEN TANG CONG NGHE CHO PHEP “XOAY TRUC” IN NHAY MAT

Trong chuong 2 cua sach, tinh linh hoat cua quan doi Israel den tu viec ho duoc huan luyen de ung bien voi bat ky loai vu khi hay dia hinh nao. Trong kinh doanh hien dai, “vu khi” do chinh la cong nghe.

Cloud Adoption (ung dung dien toan dam may) khong chi la cau chuyen luu tru du lieu tren Google Drive hay AWS. Do la tu duy “bien phi co dinh thanh phi bien doi”.

• – Neu ban dung may chu vat ly (On-premise), khi ban muon mo rong quy mo (Method B – tang truong nong), ban phai doi 3 thang de mua thiet bi, lap dat.
• – Voi Cloud, ban chi can vai cu click chuot de nang cap tai nguyen.
• – Ngay ca khi ban that bai va can thu hep quy mo (Method C), Cloud cho phep ban cat giam chi phi ngay lap tuc, thay vi om mot dong may moc thanh phe lieu.

Kha nang “Method B, C, D” ty le thuan voi muc do so hoa cua doanh nghiep. Doanh nghiep cang it “day nhua” (cac tai san vat ly co dinh, quy trinh giay to cong kenh), kha nang xoay chuyen cang cao.

CASE STUDY 1: BAI HOC TU MOT CHUOI BAN LE KIET QUE VI TRUNG THANH VOI PLAN A

Boi canh: Mot chuoi ban le do gia dung voi gan 40 cua hang tai cac trung tam thuong mai lon. Ke hoach (Plan A) la tiep tuc mo rong diem ban de chiem linh thi phan dua tren luong khach vang lai (foot traffic).

Van de thuc te: Thi truong bien dong do xu huong mua sam truc tuyen tang dot bien va gia thue mat bang leo thang. Doanh thu tren moi diem ban giam 15%, trong khi chi phi van hanh tang 10%. Chu doanh nghiep van kien tri voi Plan A vi cho rang “day chi la giai doan tam thoi”, tiep tuc vay no de mo diem moi.

Diem trong sach lien quan: Thieu Method B (Kich ban thay doi kenh tiep can khach hang). Ho da qua tin vao mot kich ban duy nhat ma khong co su du phong cho viec hanh vi nguoi dung thay doi.

Cach ap dung (tai cau truc): Chung toi da phai can thiep bang cach dung ngay viec mo diem moi (cat lo Plan A). Trien khai ngay Method B: Chuyen 30% ngan sach thue mat bang sang xay dung he thong van hanh thuong mai dien tu va kho trung chuyen nho (Micro-fulfillment centers). Su dung Cloud de ket noi ton kho thoi gian thuc giua cac cua hang va san TMDT.

Ket qua: Sau 6 thang, doanh thu online tang truong 200%, bu dap hoan toan cho su sụt giam cua cac cua hang vat ly. Bien loi nhuan thuan cai thien do giam duoc chi phi mat bang. Neu van giu Plan A, chuoi nay co le da pha san sau 1 nam.

CASE STUDY 2: TAI CAU TRUC DOANH NGHIEP SAN XUAT – XOAY TRUC GIUA KHUNG HOANG CHUOI CUNG UNG

Boi canh: Mot doanh nghiep san xuat do noi that xuat khau. Nguon nguyen lieu go phu thuoc 80% vao nhap khau tu mot quoc gia duy nhat.

Van de thuc te: Do tinh hinh dia chinh tri, nguon cung bi duc gay, cuoc van tai tang gap 5 lan. Plan A (Nhap khau – Gia cong – Xuat khau) hoan toan bi te liet.

Diem trong sach lien quan: Kha nang xoay chuyen lien tuc giua cac kich ban. Trong chien truong, khi nguon tiep te bi cat, ban phai “an thuc an tai cho”.

Cach ap dung: Doanh nghiep buoc phai kich hoat Method C: Thay doi cau truc san pham. Thay vi dung go nhap khau cao cap, ho chuyen sang nghien cuu dong san pham su dung go noi dia va vat lieu tai che. He thong kiem soat noi bo phai thay doi toan bo quy trinh Kiem dinh chat luong (QC) de thich nghi voi nguyen lieu moi.

Ket qua: Mac du thoi gian dau gap kho khan ve ky thuat, nhung viec chu dong “xoay truc” giup doanh nghiep khong bi dung san xuat. Ho tham chi con mo ra mot phan khuc thi truong moi la “Noi that xanh”, thu hut duoc cac don hang tu Chau Au voi gia tri cao hon. Day la minh chung cho viec Method C khong chi la song sot, ma con la co hoi de tai cau truc linh hoat hon.

MAT TRAI CUA VIEC XOAY CHUYEN QUA NHANH: NGUY CO MAT BAN SAC VA TAN RA NOI BO

Cuon “Quoc gia khoi nghiep” ca ngoi su linh hoat, nhung duoi goc do dieu hanh, toi can phai canh bao ve “mat toi” cua viec lam dung Method B, C, D.

Neu lanh dao thay doi ke hoach qua thuong xuyen ma khong co mot ly do du thuyet phuc hoac khong truyen thong minh bach, doi ngu nhan su se roi vao trang thai “met moi vi thay doi” (Change Fatigue). Nhan vien se khong con tin vao bat ky ban ke hoach nao nua, vi ho nghi “sang mai Sep lai doi ay ma”.

Ben canh do, viec xoay chuyen qua nhieu co the khien doanh nghiep mat di ban sac cot loi. Ban la mot cong ty cong nghe hay la mot cong ty ban le? Ban phuc vu khach hang cao cap hay binh dan? Neu Method B va C di qua xa khoi nang luc cot loi (Core Competency), ban dang choi mot canh bac rui ro hon ca viec kien tri voi Plan A.

Vi vay, viec xoay chuyen phai dua tren cac cot tru vung chac:

• – Cot tru van hoa: Tinh than trach nhiem va su dong long.
• – Cot tru he thong: Cong nghe va quy trinh kiem soat du linh hoat de thay doi nhung du cung de khong tan ra.

TONG KET VA ACTIONABLE TAKEAWAYS

Tu duy “Method B, C, D” trong “Quoc gia khoi nghiep” khong phai la mot thu thu thuat kinh doanh, no la mot triet ly song con. No doi hoi chung ta phai khiem ton truoc su bien dong cua thi truong va quyet liet trong viec tu bo nhung thu khong con hieu qua.

HANH DONG	NOI DUNG CHI TIET
Dieu nen hoc	Xay dung van hoa phan bien. Luon dat cau hoi: “Neu…thi sao?” So hoa he thong de co du lieu.
Dieu can can trong	Khong thay doi vi cam xuc. Phai co “diem kich hoat” ro rang cho tung phuong an B, C, D.
Dieu khong nen than thanh	Khong phai cu xoay la thang. Xoay ma khong co nen tang van hanh vung thi chi la “giay chet”.

ACTIONABLE TAKEAWAYS CHO DOANH NGHIEP CUA BAN:

1. 1. Xay dung “Ma tran kich ban”: Ngay hom nay, hay ngoi lai voi doi ngu nong cot va viet ra 3 kich ban xau nhat co the xay ra voi doanh nghiep trong 6 thang toi. Ung voi moi kich ban, hay ghi ra it nhat 3 hanh dong cu the phai lam ngay lap tuc.
2. 2. Thiet lap “Diem kich hoat” (Trigger Points): Method B chi co tac dung neu ban biet khi nao can dung no. Vi du: “Neu doanh thu giam xuong duoi muc X trong 2 thang lien tiep, chung ta se kich hoat ke hoach cat giam 15% chi phi hanh chinh va chuyen sang ban hang qua kenh dai ly”.
3. 3. Dau tu vao su linh hoat cua he thong: Hay ra soat lai xem ban dang co bao nhieu “chi phi co dinh” khong the cat giam. Hay tim cach “Cloud-hoa” nhieu nhat co the, tu ha tang IT den cach thuc thue muon nhan su (outsourcing, freelancing) de co the co gian quy mo mot cach tuc thi.
4. 4. Ren luyen tinh than “Battlefield” cho doi ngu: Hay cho phep nhan vien sai lam trong pham vi cho phep, khuyen khich ho de xuat “Method B” cho chinh cong viec cua ho. Mot doanh nghiep chi thuc su linh hoat khi tung te bao cua no deu co kha nang tu thich nghi.

Ke hoach chi la nhung dong chu tren giay, nhung kha nang thuc thi va xoay chuyen moi la thu viet nen lich su cua mot doanh nghiep. Ban da san sang cho Method B cua minh chua, hay van dang hy vong Plan A se luon luon dung? Chien truong khong co cho cho su hy vong, chi co cho cho su chuan bi va ung bien tai tinh.

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